Migration: A Dynamic System  Fleeing is a part of migration, the movement by people from one place to another with the intention to settle temporarily or permanently in the new location. That’s why we analyze refugee policies as part of migration policies - based on the modeling of migration. Migrants are motivated by the hope to live better in another country. Combined with mobility and chances of getting access to the favored new location, the risky process of imigration comes into being. Figure 1: The Migration Process  

Starting from the model, some assertions and

conclusions can be made:

1.

The public discussion hitherto is clearly focused on

issues of access, distribution, and integration. A

continuing lack of living chances in countries of

origin, indeed, will make migration increase

anyway. Escalating uncivilian movements such as

Islamic State, civil wars, and chaos such as in Syria

and Libya will stimulate this process.  

2 . Since     sucessful     migration     shows     the     practical possibility    of    reaching    countries    of    hope,    it    will likely     make     distinct     migration     a     sustainable phenomenon - a reinforcing effect. 3 . With   increasingly   sustainable   migration,   a   human right   on   free   mobility   (being   a   European   citizen)   is discussed      -      a      further      factor      of      reinforcing migration processes. 4 . The   already   developed   -   criminal   -   approaches   of   a migration   industry    in   transit   areas   and   economic usages    in    countries    of    immigration    are    likely    to establish.    Indeed    these    new    markets    will    get attractive    also    for    other    actors    such    as    classical service     firms.     That’s     why     more     competitive structures        and        fights        between        different approaches will emerge. 5 . A       certain       familiarization       with       multi-ethnic structures   of   society   are   likely   to   go   hand   in   hand with    socio-political    conflicts    about    immigration policies. 6 . Although     emigration     can     imply     some     positive economic   feedbacks,   sustainable   migration   of   the best    (young,    well-educated,    and    often    relatively rich    people)    will    mainly    contribute    to    holding down   weak   and   poor   countries   of   origin.   Insofar steady   streams   of   migration      reinforce   asymmetric structures of economy and peace on this Earth. 7 . In   sum:   The   migration   to   Europe   is   a   dynamically self-reinforcing system.
Back
Policy Options

Against the presented background, we can discuss some

options of an effective migration policy.

Intra-European policy challenges

First and foremost effective policies of integration are at

stake. It does not make any sense to marginalize

immigrants in the long term. Instead they should get fair

chances of getting integrated members of the open

society.  

Fair mechanisms of distributing migrants amongst the

European member-states are another essential of a

responsible refugee policy in Europe. The public

pressure against narrow-minded “the boat is full”

policies should intensify.

Humanitarian Policy

A distinct death risk of transit maneuvers used to be a

tool of hampering migrants’ access to Europe. This

usage of death has meanwhile come under massive

public pressure - a matter of course in a society based

on humanitarian values. It is not arguable to expose

Syrian refugees or other refugees of IS, war, and chaos

to existential risks on their transit to safe states.

INdeed, the since recently increased rescuing activities

in the Middle Sea are likely to stimulate further

migration - an even bigger challenge of developing and

enforcing an integrated migration policy.

Aggressive defense?

Australia’s strategy of aggressive defense against any unsolicited immigrant differs from pure muddling through. But this approach is only a negative one dismissing the positive potentials of immigration - and it turns out to be contradictory as  long as the European countries do not participate in fighting against the IS and other current sources of war and chaos around Europe.

Qualitative selection of migrants?

Following Canada and other countries, the strategy of

qualitative selection has been issed. Anybody should get

a chance to come into the country of his or her hope on

condition that he/she fulfills certain qualitative

criterions, particularly certain professional

qualifications. This strategy seems to be clever: Existing

potentials of qualification, education, and social life are

consciously attracted to the countries of immigration - a

huge advantage. Additionally qualified immigrants have

a better chance of integration. However, the countries

of origin are weakened by this kind of qualitative

selection to an extreme degree because persons with

the most valuable qualifications are attracted to the rich

countries. An argument for this policy, indeed, refers on

a possible trainee effect in the countries of highest

educational standards. Well educated immigrants may

then later go back to their countries of origin.

Effective Conflict Settlement and Fight Against IS

Uncivilian movements such as Islamic State, failing

states, and the war in Syria are no longer only a regional

threat; more and more they are becoming an urgent

global challenge. That’s why we need effective military

and political cooperation of the world community

(United Nations) against IS and similar movements. At

that, aggressive religions have to be consequentially

confronted with fundamental demands of a peaceful

living together. The recent experiences in Tunisia and

Egypt underline the necessity of rethinking the role of

aggressive religions fundamentally.

Integrated migration policy

Since migration corresponds with processes in the

countries of origin, the countries of immigration, and

the transit countries, isolated measures are not enough;

possibly they even lead to new and bigger problems.

That’s why an integrated migration policy promises the

best chances of success - comprising international

alliances between countries of origin, countries of

immigration, and countries of transit. Migration policy

of that kind is closely linked with international conflict

settlement.

VP, 29 June 2015

 

IPA Institute for Political Analysis Prof. Dr. Volker von Prittwitz
Integrated Migration Policy A Model-Based Analysis The   currently   pursued   policies   on   migration   issues   in   Europe are   ad-hoc   policies   driven   by   varying   public   pressure,   single interests,   and   laziness   by   which   interconnections   of   different factors   are   dismissed   and   basic   problems   are   not   tackled.   In contrast, an integrated migation policy appears to be sensible.