Migration: A Dynamic SystemFleeing is a part of migration, the movement by people from one place to another with the intention to settle temporarily or permanently in the new location. That’s why we analyze refugee policies as part of migration policies - based on the modeling of migration. Migrants are motivated by the hope to live better in another country. Combined with mobility and chances of getting access to the favored new location, the risky process of imigration comes into being. Figure 1: The Migration Process
Starting from the model, some assertions and
conclusions can be made:
The public discussion hitherto is clearly focused on
issues of access, distribution, and integration. A
continuing lack of living chances in countries of
origin, indeed, will make migration increase
anyway. Escalating uncivilian movements such as
Islamic State, civil wars, and chaos such as in Syria
and Libya will stimulate this process.
2.Since sucessful migration shows the practical possibility of reaching countries of hope, it will likely make distinct migration a sustainable phenomenon - a reinforcing effect.3.With increasingly sustainable migration, a human right on free mobility (being a European citizen) is discussed - a further factor of reinforcing migration processes.4.The already developed - criminal - approaches of a migration industryin transit areas and economic usages in countries of immigration are likely to establish. Indeed these new markets will get attractive also for other actors such as classical service firms. That’s why more competitive structures and fights between different approaches will emerge.5.A certain familiarization with multi-ethnic structures of society are likely to go hand in hand with socio-political conflicts about immigration policies. 6.Although emigration can imply some positive economic feedbacks, sustainable migration of the best (young, well-educated, and often relatively rich people) will mainly contribute to holding down weak and poor countries of origin. Insofar steady streams of migration reinforce asymmetric structures of economy and peace on this Earth.7.In sum: The migration to Europe is a dynamically self-reinforcing system.
Against the presented background, we can discuss some
options of an effective migration policy.
Intra-European policy challenges
First and foremost effective policies of integration are at
stake. It does not make any sense to marginalize
immigrants in the long term. Instead they should get fair
chances of getting integrated members of the open
Fair mechanisms of distributing migrants amongst the
European member-states are another essential of a
responsible refugee policy in Europe. The public
pressure against narrow-minded “the boat is full”
policies should intensify.
A distinct death risk of transit maneuvers used to be a
tool of hampering migrants’ access to Europe. This
usage of death has meanwhile come under massive
public pressure - a matter of course in a society based
on humanitarian values. It is not arguable to expose
Syrian refugees or other refugees of IS, war, and chaos
to existential risks on their transit to safe states.
INdeed, the since recently increased rescuing activities
in the Middle Sea are likely to stimulate further
migration - an even bigger challenge of developing and
enforcing an integrated migration policy.
Australia’s strategy of aggressive defense against any unsolicited immigrant differs from pure muddling through. But this approach is only a negative one dismissing the positive potentials of immigration - and it turns out to be contradictory as long as the European countries do not participate in fighting against the IS and other current sources of war and chaos around Europe.
Qualitative selection of migrants?
Following Canada and other countries, the strategy of
qualitative selection has been issed. Anybody should get
a chance to come into the country of his or her hope on
condition that he/she fulfills certain qualitative
criterions, particularly certain professional
qualifications. This strategy seems to be clever: Existing
potentials of qualification, education, and social life are
consciously attracted to the countries of immigration - a
huge advantage. Additionally qualified immigrants have
a better chance of integration. However, the countries
of origin are weakened by this kind of qualitative
selection to an extreme degree because persons with
the most valuable qualifications are attracted to the rich
countries. An argument for this policy, indeed, refers on
a possible trainee effect in the countries of highest
educational standards. Well educated immigrants may
then later go back to their countries of origin.
Effective Conflict Settlement and Fight Against IS
Uncivilian movements such as Islamic State, failing
states, and the war in Syria are no longer only a regional
threat; more and more they are becoming an urgent
global challenge. That’s why we need effective military
and political cooperation of the world community
(United Nations) against IS and similar movements. At
that, aggressive religions have to be consequentially
confronted with fundamental demands of a peaceful
living together. The recent experiences in Tunisia and
Egypt underline the necessity of rethinking the role of
aggressive religions fundamentally.
Integrated migration policy
Since migration corresponds with processes in the
countries of origin, the countries of immigration, and
the transit countries, isolated measures are not enough;
possibly they even lead to new and bigger problems.
That’s why an integrated migration policy promises the
best chances of success - comprising international
alliances between countries of origin, countries of
immigration, and countries of transit. Migration policy
of that kind is closely linked with international conflict
VP, 29 June 2015
IPAInstitute for Political AnalysisProf. Dr. Volker von Prittwitz
Integrated Migration PolicyA Model-Based AnalysisThe currently pursued policies on migration issues in Europe are ad-hoc policies driven by varying public pressure, single interests, and laziness by which interconnections of different factors are dismissed and basic problems are not tackled. In contrast, an integrated migation policy appears to be sensible.